Electric Cars 2023 - 2043

  • Forecast Period: 2023 to 2043
  • Published On: Aug 2022
  • Pages: 255
  • By:  IDTechEx
  • Type: PDF
  • Customizable: Yes

Electric Cars: Global Markets

The automotive sector is the largest transport sector with some 80-90 million cars sold globally each year. A global fleet of approximately 1.1 billion cars in use makes the greatest contributions to road emissions, leading the sector to become a natural early focal point for green policymakers.

While electric cars date back one hundred years, electric car markets as we know them today have been growing since circa 2011. Due to their scale, car markets create the largest opportunities for players in the electric vehicle supply chain, from advanced materials through to battery packs, power electronics, and electric motors. Moreover, they drive the rapid pace of innovation that enables electrification in other transport sectors, whether in technology, regulation, or business models. This report aims to provide a regional deep dive into the latest technology and market trends for electric cars.

Global electric car sales surged in 2021 to over 6.4 million and IDTechEx predicts sales will reach over 9 million in 2022. However, key challenges persist, such as the chip shortage and manufacturing disruption from the pandemic. On the horizon, fundamental shortages of critical raw materials loom, particularly lithium carbonate. While these challenges may impact timescales and the pace of the transition, major automotive markets are headed in one direction: decarbonization through electric vehicles.

The report provides granular regional (US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW), and technology forecasts. Technology coverage includes battery-electric (BEV), hybrid (PHEV & HEV), and fuel cell (FCEV) cars; autonomous vehicles (L2, L3, L4); Li-ion batteries (NMC, NCA, LFP, silicon, solid-state); electric motors (PM, WRSM, ACIM, Axial-flux, In-wheel); power electronics (SiC, Si IGBT); high voltage cabling and charging infrastructure.

As range becomes a key battleground to differentiate electric vehicles amid battery shortages, new powertrain advancements are coming to the forefront. The report details the rise of 800V platforms, silicon carbide (SiC) inverters, more efficient motor systems, and DC fast charging capability.

Fuel Cells

The report reveals the progress and opportunities for fuel cells in car markets, providing 20-year global forecasts. The deployment of fuel cells within vehicles is not a new concept. Major OEMs including Toyota, Ford, Honda, GM, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW have invested large sums over the past 30 years in advancing the technology. For passenger cars, a huge amount of effort and expense has gone into developing fuel cells, but in 2021 only two major OEMs, Toyota and Hyundai, have FCEV cars in production and fewer than 20,000 FCEV were sold in 2021.

Fuel cell vehicle deployments face considerable challenges, including decreasing the cost of fuel cell system components and rolling out sufficient hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Also essential will be the availability of cheap 'green' hydrogen, produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable electricity, which analysis in the new IDTechEx report highlights will be vital to FCEVs delivering the environmental credentials on which they are being sold.


'Autonomous vehicle' (AV) is an umbrella term for the six levels as defined by the SAE. Today, most new cars are arriving with the option of level 2 functionality, and the industry is technically ready for level 3 once regulatory hurdles clear.

In recent years, vast improvements to autonomous vehicle technologies such as radar, lidar, HD cameras, and software have propelled robotaxis to the cusp of market readiness. Autonomous trials from Waymo, Cruise, and others are now evolving into autonomous services, with legislative barriers clearing. IDTechEx forecasts reveal how these services will come to dominate within 20 years.

Some regions are even pushing for level 4 technology, but most activity here is still with autonomous mobility start-ups and in trial stages. Overall, the report finds autonomous vehicles will become a massively disruptive technology that will grow rapidly at a rate of up to 47% to transform the auto market over the next two decades.

Advanced Li-ion Battery Cells & Packs

Li-ion batteries based on graphite anodes and layered oxide cathodes (NMC, NCA) have come to dominate large parts of the electric vehicle markets. However, as they start to reach their performance limits and as environmental and supply risks are highlighted, improvements and alternatives to Li-ion batteries become increasingly important. This report summarises trends and developments in advanced battery technologies, including Li-ion cell designs, silicon anodes, and solid-state batteries.

Advanced Li-ion refers to silicon and Li-metal anodes, solid-electrolytes, high-Ni cathodes as well as various cell design factors. Given the importance of the electric vehicle market, specifically battery electric cars, in determining battery demand, Li-ion is forecast to maintain its dominant position. Cathode and anode choices, cell design improvements, and rate of energy density improvement are key questions addressed in this report.

Also discussed are pack-level trends. Several different materials are required to assemble a battery pack, including TIMs, adhesives, gaskets, impregnation, potting, fillers, and more. A general trend towards larger cell form factors and non-modular cell-to-pack battery designs is discussed, a trend expected to reduce the number of connections, busbars, and cables between cells and modules.

Power Electronics

In automotive power electronics (inverters, onboard chargers, DC-DC converters), key advancements are being made to improve powertrain efficiency, allowing for either battery pack capacity reduction or improved range. One of the key avenues to achieving greater efficiencies is the transition to silicon carbide MOSFETs and high-voltage vehicle platforms at or above 800V. This trend has been increasing in pace as Renault, BYD, GM and Hyundai have announced 800V vehicle platforms that will adopt silicon carbide MOSFETs in their power electronics through 2025.

The transition is presenting fresh challenges for power module package materials, as higher switching frequencies, increased power densities, and increased operational temperatures are demanded all whilst maintaining a 15-year service life. The report shows technology outlooks for 800V platform voltages and the adoption of SiC inverters. It further discusses how, as the power density of semiconductor chips has been increasing exponentially over the past decade, new double-sided cooling designs, copper wirebonds, and lead frames have emerged as enabler.

Electric Motors

Electric motor markets are still evolving today with new designs, improving power and torque density, and more considerations around the materials used. These aren't just incremental improvements either with developments such as axial flux motors and various OEMs eliminating rare earth.

There are several key performance metrics for electric motors. Power and torque density enables improved driving dynamics in a smaller and lighter package, with weight and space being at a premium in EVs. Another critical area is driving cycle efficiency. Improving efficiency means that less of the precious energy stored in the battery is wasted when accelerating the vehicle, leading to an improved range from the same battery capacity. Due to the many different considerations in motor design, the EV market has adopted several different solutions including permanent magnet, induction, and wound-rotor motors.

The report reveals trends around motor technology and topology, power and torque density, and materials utilization. This report addresses these trends within the markets for battery-electric cars with OEM use cases and a technology outlook by motor type - permanent magnet (PM), induction, wound-rotor, in-wheel PM, axial-flux PM.


1.1.    Report Introduction

1.2.    Electric Vehicle Definitions

1.3.    Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, ICE

1.4.    Hybrid Car Sales Surges

1.5.    Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands,              Denmark, RoW

1.6.    Regional Trends: China

1.7.    Regional Trends: US

1.8.    Regional Trends: EU + UK + EFTA

1.9.    Electric Car Sales by Region (Data Table)

1.10.    Automaker & Government EV Targets

1.11.    Cars: Total Cost of Ownership

1.12.    Shortages Across the Supply Chain

1.13.    Average Battery Capacity Forecast: China, Europe, US, RoW

1.14.    Global Battery Demand by Region 2015-2043 (GWh)

1.15.    Global Revenues 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV ($ billion)

1.16.    Autonomous Cars 2015-2043: L2, L3, Private L4, Shared L4

1.17.    Access to 18 IDTechEx Portal Company Profiles


2.1.    Regional Electric Car Markets in 2021

2.2.    Automaker Market Rankings

2.3.    Powertrain Tailpipe Emissions Comparison

2.4.    Grid Emissions

2.5.    COP26 Transport Targets

2.6.    Hybrid Car Sales Surges

2.7.    Hybrid Car (HEV) Manufacturer Market Share

2.8.    Shortages Across the Supply Chain

2.9.    Raw Material Price Increases

2.10.    Lithium Shortage

2.11.    Chip Shortages - Background

2.12.    Chip Shortages - Electric Vehicles

2.13.    Chip Shortages - Automaker Reactions


3.1.    Chapter summary

3.2.    New energy vehicles

3.3.    What's Driving Electrification in China?

3.4.    Car Sales and Two-wheeler Sales in China

3.5.    Electric vehicle data sources in China

3.6.    Monthly NEV sales 2016-2020

3.7.    Monthly NEV Sales 2020-2022

3.8.    'Zero-covid' Policy

3.9.    The Dual-credit System

3.10.    Automakers Ranked by the Credit System

3.11.    Credit Price Changes

3.12.    OEM Market Shares in China 2015-2021

3.13.    China Purchase Subsidy 2020-2022

3.14.    NEV Sales by Vehicle Class

3.15.    Battery Chemistry Trends: China

3.16.    Batterymaker Market Shares in China

3.17.    Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain: China

3.18.    Charging Infrastructure: China Summary

3.19.    Charging Infrastructure Province and Municipalities in China

3.20.    Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: China

3.21.    Battery Swapping Growth in China

3.22.    Battery Swap Stations in Chinese Cities


4.1.    Chapter Summary

4.2.    US Electric Vehicle Sales

4.3.    US Electric Vehicle OEM Market Shares

4.4.    2022 Monthly Sales

4.5.    US PHEV arguments

4.6.    US Electric Vehicle Target

4.7.    Final US Emissions Standards

4.8.    US: Plug-in Electric Vehicle Tax Credit

4.9.    Electric Vehicle Registrations by State

4.10.    Electric Pickups - The Next Big Thing

4.11.    General Motors' Future Mobility Plans

4.12.    'Technology' Automakers & 'Sony-Honda Mobility'

4.13.    Battery Chemistry Trends: US

4.14.    Public Charging Stations in the US

4.15.    Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: US


5.1.    Chapter Summary

5.2.    Historic Electric Vehicle Sales

5.3.    EU + UK + EFTA Sales H1 2022

5.4.    Historic Electric Vehicle Sales By Model

5.5.    Battery Chemistry Trends: Europe

5.6.    EU ICE Ban by 2035

5.7.    Europe Emissions Standards

5.8.    Europe Plug-in Hybrid Outlook

5.9.    The Status of Public Charging in Europe

5.10.    Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: Europe


6.1.    Fuel Cell Technology Introduction

6.1.1.    PEMFC Working Principle

6.1.2.    Fuel Cell Energy Density Advantage

6.1.3.    PEMFC Assembly and Materials

6.1.4.    Role of the Gas Diffusion Layer

6.1.5.    Toyota Fuel Cell

6.2.    Fuel Cells: Barriers to Adoption

6.2.1.    Fuel Cell Energy Efficiency

6.2.2.    'E-Fuels' Comparison

6.2.3.    Hydrogen Production Methods

6.2.4.    Hydrogen: Emissions & Cost Issues

6.2.5.    Fuelling Costs Petrol vs Hydrogen

6.2.6.    Energy Cost per Mile: FCEV, BEV, Internal-combustion

6.2.7.    Hydrogen Infrastructure

6.2.8.    Hydrogen Infrastructure Costs

6.3.    Fuel Cell Markets, Forecasts & Players

6.3.1.    Growth of Fuel Cell Passenger Cars

6.3.2.    Fuel Cell Car Forecasts

6.3.3.    OEMs on Developing FCEVs

6.3.4.    Reality of the FCEV Range Advantage over BEV

6.3.5.    Fuel Cell Car Models

6.3.6.    FCEV Purchase Incentives

6.3.7.    South Korean FCEV Subsidy

6.3.8.    Toyota Mirai 2nd Generation

6.3.9.    Toyota Mirai 2nd Gen. Significant Upgrades

6.3.10.    Toyota Mirai 2nd Gen H2 Safety Measures

6.3.11.    Toyota Mirai Sales 2014-2021

6.3.12.    Hyundai NEXO SUV

6.3.13.    Hyundai FCEV Improvements

6.3.14.    Hyundai NEXO Hydrogen Tanks

6.3.15.    Hyundai FCEV Goals

6.3.16.    Hyundai NEXO Sales

6.3.17.    BMW i Hydrogen NEXT FCEV

6.3.18.    Chinese FCEV Cars

6.3.19.    SAIC China's FCEV Car Pioneer

6.3.20.    Announced Chinese FCEV Cars

6.4.    Failed FCEV Projects

6.4.1.    Honda FCEV Development Timeline

6.4.2.    Honda Clarity Fuel Cell

6.4.3.    Honda Discontinue FC-Clarity: Weak Demand

6.4.4.    Mercedes End FCEV Car Development

6.4.5.    VW Position on Fuel Cells

6.4.6.    VW: H2 Inefficiency as a Fuel

6.4.7.    Audi Abandons FCEV Development

6.4.8.    Volvo & Powercell


7.1.    The Automation Levels in Detail

7.2.    The Components of Autonomy

7.3.    Typical Sensor Suite for Autonomous Cars

7.4.    Sensors and Their Purpose

7.5.    Important Trends in the Sensor Holy Trinity

7.6.    ADAS Chip Power Progression

7.7.    Autonomy is Changing the Automotive Supply Chain

7.8.    Sensor Suite Metadata

7.9.    MaaS Sensor Analysis

7.10.    MaaS Sensor Suite Analysis

7.11.    Legislation Breakdown by Region

7.12.    Sensor Requirements for Different Levels of Autonomy

7.13.    Car Sales Will Peak in the Early 2030s

7.14.    MaaS Adoption Forecast

7.15.    MaaS Market Entry by Region

7.16.    Car Sales Broken Down by SAE Level

7.17.    Autonomous Vehicle Markets


8.1.    Batteries

8.1.1.    Lithium Battery Chemistries

8.1.2.    Types of Lithium Battery

8.1.3.    Battery Technology Comparison

8.1.4.    The Promise of Silicon

8.1.5.    Silicon Anode Material Opportunities

8.1.6.    Silicon Anode - Company Benchmarking

8.1.7.    Status & Future of the Solid State Battery Business

8.1.8.    Solid-state Electrolyte Technology Approach

8.1.9.    Technology Evaluation

8.1.10.    Technology Evaluation

8.1.11.    Solid State Battery Collaborations/Investment by Automotive OEMs

8.1.12.    Li-ion Technology Diversification

8.1.13.    Cathode Demand For BEV Cars (Gwh)

8.1.14.    Li-ion Timeline Commentary

8.1.15.    Timeline and Outlook for Li-ion Cell Energy Densities

8.1.16.    IDTechEx Li-ion Battery Timeline

8.1.17.    Li-ion Batteries: From Cell to Pack

8.1.18.    Automotive Format Choices

8.1.19.    Battery Pack Materials

8.1.20.    Shifts in Cell and Pack Design

8.1.21.    Eliminating the Battery Module

8.1.22.    Will the Module Be Eliminated?


9.1.    Electric Motors: Continued Developments

9.2.    Summary of Traction Motor Types

9.3.    Convergence on PM by Major Automakers

9.4.    Magnet Price Increase Risk

9.5.    Reducing Rare-Earths

9.6.    Axial Flux Motors: Emerging Players

9.7.    Axial Flux Motors Enter the EV Market

9.8.    Benchmark of Commercial Axial Flux Motors

9.9.    In-Wheel Motors: Benefits

9.10.    Examples of Vehicles with In-Wheel Motors

9.11.    Electric Motor Outlook by Technology


10.1.1.    Power Electronics in Electric Vehicles

10.1.2.    Power Electronics Device Ranges

10.1.3.    Benchmarking Silicon, Silicon Carbide & Gallium Nitride

10.1.4.    Inverter Power Modules

10.1.5.    Inverter Package Designs

10.1.6.    Module Packaging Material Dimensions

10.1.7.    SiC Die Area Reduction

10.1.8.    Silicon Carbide Size Reductions to Inverter Package

10.1.9.    Advanced Wire Bonding Techniques

10.1.10.    Drivers for 800V Platforms

10.1.11.    System Changes Moving to 800V

10.1.12.    Emerging 800V Platforms & SiC Inverters

10.1.13.    800V Platform Discussion & Outlook

10.2.    Other Technology Developments

10.2.1.    In-house Vehicle Software Platforms

10.2.2.    Sono Motors: Solar Bodywork

10.2.3.    Sono Motors: Achieving Low Cost

10.2.4.    Aluminium High Voltage Cabling

10.2.5.    Aluminium HV Cabling Disadvantages

10.2.6.    Tesla Model 3 HV Cable

10.2.7.    Al HV Cables Market Adoption

10.2.8.    The Ultimate Concept EV: 1000km Range


11.1.    Overview of Charging Levels

11.2.    Historic Charging Installations

11.3.    DC Fast Charging Levels

11.4.    High Power Charging (HPC)

11.5.    Harmonisation of Connector Standards

11.6.    Smart Charging

11.7.    Key Market Players

11.8.    AC Charging Forecast 2015-2032

11.9.    DC Fast Charging Forecast 2015-2032


12.1.    Long-term Forecasting of Technologies

12.2.    Forecast Methodology

12.3.    Forecast Methodology & FAQ

12.4.    Forecast Assumptions

12.5.    Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV, ICE

12.6.    Electric Car Sales 2015-2043: US, China, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW

12.7.    Average Battery Capacity Forecast: China, Europe, US, RoW

12.8.    Global Battery Demand by Region 2015-2043 (GWh)

12.9.    Global Revenues 2015-2043: BEV, PHEV, FCEV ($ billion)

12.10.    Autonomous Cars 2015-2043: L2, L3, Private L4, Shared L4

12.11.    Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain: China

12.12.    Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: China

12.13.    Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: US

12.14.    Private & Public Charging Uptake Ratio: Europe

12.15.    Car Sales Will Peak in the Early 2030s

12.16.    MaaS Adoption Forecast

12.17.    Car Sales Broken Down by SAE Level

12.18.    Cathode Demand For BEV Cars (Gwh)

12.19.    Electric Motor Outlook by Technology

12.20.    800V Platform Discussion & Outlook

12.21.    Al HV Cables Market Adoption

12.22.    AC Charging Forecast 2015-2032

12.23.    DC Fast Charging Forecast 2015-2032